While I've been known to suspect my share of conspiracies, I agree the fact that it trades illogically is not evidence of a conspiracy on its own. The herd mentality runs deep on Wall Street. The TEVA overhang is enough to keep larger players (GS, MS etc.)from calling it a conviction buy. So, much of the herd does'nt move until they get that ringing endorsement. Interestingly, I believe that MNTA/NVS are also creating a similar overhang on TEVA shares as potential investors sweat out the copaxone patent issue.
As time goes on (assuming no TEVA approval), MNTA will start to trade based on the cash it is accumulating. Cash on the balance sheet will not be overlooked by the street. At some point a higher multiple will be awarded based on the intellectual property, but the street doesn't appear ready to assign such a multiple right now.
The FDA laid out a strong rationale for the MNTA/NVS approval. This has withstood SNY attempts to overturn. I'm betting that the rationale just as strongly supports not approving the Teva application at this time.
So in the mean time I see a slow ramp for MNTA as cash builds until a game changing event (invalidation of copaxone patents etc.).
FL
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