Replies to post #3283 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[JJM760]

I completely disagree with BTH on that one.

[lt56]

Heres why all this negative thinking makes no sense. For arguments sake lets assume the Succeed trial is 50-50 ( think its better than that) for success. Lets say it fails. The stock doesn't go down more than 70 or 80 cents because of 534 and all the other trials MRK is doing in RIDA including the ENDO trial which is going to be a success and has a larger patient population than Sarcoma.

Now lets say Succeed is successful. ARIA goes up ( in my opinion ) 3 points on that news.

So assuming a 50-50 chance of success you have a downside of 80 cents and upside of 3 dollars. I'll take those odds anytime.