I'm not so sure I really consider Ariad undervalued at this point. It's got close to $500 million market cap, with a pivotal P3 trial data read within the next 6 months, which is a partnered, not wholly-owned, asset. They have Ponatinib, which is wholly-owned, and another drug, '113, which is more vapor at this point than anything, wholly-owned. IF the SUCCEED trial has a positive outcome (and that is what I am betting on....bettttting, because I don't have a huge amount of faith in the trial), then I would consider it "undervalued" because Ponatinib really looks like it could be a blockbuster. So, I think Ariad is fairly-valued here.
Incyte, on the other hand, has run up dramatically prior to their P3 data read in a month or so. Which is why I feel like there is no room for error on this trial (to get a big whack in the price).
You're right however. Both have very promising pipelines (not one-trick pony), so they both have a "PUT" , so to speak, to soften the blow of any bad data (in the upcoming trials). That's why I don't think either one will "blow up". But, I think where INCY is valued today, gives it more room to give up.
oh and yes...if ponatinib had something "bad" happen, i would consider ariad's future 'no so good'.
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