"Call it a contribution margin of $150M USD annually."
I think you made this calculation (or maybe it was biomaven) before we became aware that this was a partnered program. Now there are a couple of scenarios. They bought the program lock, stock, and barrel as Dew says, or they partnered with some still mysterious entity on terms similar to what Sandoz extracted from Momenta. Either way, there is a fairly high chunk of sales that would go to someone other than Teva, no?
"For that, they have to get the product through FDA and face any patent infringement risk."
The incremental cost in shekels of getting t-nox through FDA is minimal, and so are the odds of Momenta finding sufficient evidence of infringement, I would think.
Mr. Market does not seem to know what to make of Teva's statements today, either, especially since both t-enox and Copaxone were addressed. As others have mentioned, the application being in the OBP means nothing. Might have been there in July when Teva said almost as strongly that t-enox met the 5 criteria. If Mr. Market believed as strongly as Teva did, MNTA would be a lot lower than it is.
How to balance genisi's third hand intel with Dew's? We have slightly more color on who genisi's source is.
So I ask again, Dew, what can you say about your source with out compromising it? Without naming names, can you provide color on your source's professional connection to this? Analyst? Former employee of Teva or alleged partner, or friend of same? Something like that?
Regards, RockRat
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