Of course, BTH. That's one main reason I'm pissed about the dilution. I've owned Ariad for a long, long time. With NO dilution (not a practical scenario, but painful to consider all the same) my shares should be in the double digits right now. I still have a profit since I bought the vast majority at pretty low prices, but still...ouch.
And yet, I think we here all understand that biotech values are not so simple. Investors MAY have still valued Ariad per share at closer to what it is now, even if the number of outstanding shares was lower. I doubt it, but who knows for sure. The point is, until a product is established and on the market, biotech valuation is a bit of a crap shoot. It's not so simple as to say that Ariad's overall market cap would be the same today if there were 50 million shares outstanding, therefore the SP would be in the teens.
Re: aria2010's endo question, I think Harvey set up the shelf weeks ahead of time, knowing the endo trial results would be in. I think he hoped for a bigger bounce immediately, and then they could set the offering price in the $4s. When it didn't happen, he pulled the trigger. Perhaps the misleading Reuters headline hurt us (for those conspiracy theorists out there, perhaps that was even manipulated by someone who wanted in). Who knows?
Point is, we've all seen Ariad's stock price go down in the days and weeks following positive news, and he didn't want to risk that here. Honestly, I don't think it would have made a huge difference. These were impressive and they validate RIDA as a legit drug, but it's not phase III results. Investors are bottom line driven right now. We're not going to see the huge bounce we're all waiting for until definitive, phase III results are announced.
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