My read on that is that Harvey is very confident in RIDA success, and he wants to negotiate from strength. This shelf was an insurance policy for the company, just in case disaster strikes--it will get them deep into '534 trials before they have to do anything more even if SUCCEED fails. But why not wait to negotiate until potential partners know that A) you have a successful drug already and thus have proven your lab is legit and B) have enough money and a stable future, with or without them? We're not talking about a year here. We'll know in a couple of months. Also, remember that if RIDA succeeds, Ariad's stock price should be markedly higher than it is now. Harvey can always tell lowballing potential partners that he's willing to go back to the capital markets if he doesn't get the deal he wants--another 10 million shares is a lot easier to swallow at $10/share instead of $3.70.
FWIW, this latest dilution pissed me off in a big way. It's not that I can't see the need for it in the long run, it's simply that I'm tired of Harvey saying one thing and doing another. He should have managed his existing funds better--and should have brought RIDA to phase III more quickly. If he had, we wouldn't be in this situation.
That said, we're here now, and there's not much more to do other than wait for RIDA results, which in spite of what Harvey said, could come pretty much anytime. The shelf has ensured that Ariad will remain a viable company no matter what those results are. Now it's time to see whether it can be much more than that.
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