The polls are not perfect, just like predicting the trends in the pinks...therefore you gotta go all in and decide what you're willing to risk versus the reward.
I think you described a situation where you could have a dump followed by a massive run in that case....could be very interesting to watch happen.....
If 19 DOES pass, I can guarandamtee you there will be a handful of pissy people with a lawyer who get it thrown out as 'unconstitutional' or some odd garbage. That's the reason I quit voting in California when I lived there.