Replies to post #106883 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Factoid: In 3Q10, generic Lovenox was NVS’ third-largest US product in the entire company (not just in the Sandoz division).

The only NVS products that exceeded generic Lovenox in 3Q10 US sales were Diovan ($627M) and Gleevec ($333M).

Source: Table on page 62 of http://www.novartis.com/downloads/investors/sales-results/Q3-2010-media-release_EN.pdf .

[MTB]

Floblu has lead me back to the fold since the Goat Rodeo fiasco.

I'm still busy getting up to speed on MNTA. Thanks to all for the rapid education on MNTA. It appears a remarkable combination of proprietary analytic ability and a great pipeline.

I typically think of bad things first, then plan on a course of action. With this in mind, a couple of quick questions:

1) Assuming Teva isn't FOS (which strains credulity), and Teva's generic enoxaparin was approved tomorrow, MNTA's roughly 10% royalty rate would be muliplied against what figure?

2) Markman decision is still pending, but likely to be rendered in < 90 days. Correct?

I had no opinion on Teva before listening to yesterday's call a number of times, but have a hard time to assigning their three mentions of their t-lovenox to other than marked cynicism/ vengefulness. 2/3 speakers (in what were clearly prepared remarks) mentioned 'chemical sameness' had been achieved. Notably none of them mentioned achieving the much more rigorous standard of 'structural/sequential sameness.' The first is easy. Given their likely inability to achieve MNTA's analytic feats, the lack of the latter will likely be their downfall.

Thanks again.

Best,
MTB