Replies to post #39210 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Sojourner Smith]

First off I would rather market backed off and then rallied more. Of course basing here and going higher would hurt this short. What I think will happen is we will go down in Nov
like Nov 2000 and have a small rally in Jan and April and
other various bear rallies. IMO things will not improve until at least 2004.

Interesting that the media is quoting all the bulls, but
today for instance a Pru analyst stated that GS would not
meet fairly modest expections through 2002 and 2003.
I would think Pru would know that business well.
It would seem the broker/bankers would be a good indicator.
Revenues will be weak for lack of IPOs for one reason.

This rally has nothing to run on except short covering. No hot sector, no new companies, no consolidations, just missed expectations. You state the smaller stocks are laggards, well since May I have avoided many of the small tech companies because they were failing their 50dma cross-overs every time. This rally boosted many, but like BRCD many are starting to fizzle again. I think many of these will run again in Jan
for the effect, but after that down the tubes for many more.

edit: a quick victory in Iraq could cause a longer rally
and delay a sell-off.


JMO