Replies to post #2599 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[BTH]

Is the final "event" trigger the last patient that has "progressed"?

If so, what if you have 10 patients like Carol Boone, who presumably don't progress? what becomes of the trial then?

[Whosetosay]

Don, the discussion today nudged me to reread your posts of July 25 in response to a few of my rather basic questions. As you s owell describe, the strategy of the design decisions make a great case for SUCCEED to do so. It is a compelling case that you describe in clear and statistically underscored terms. Your case is even more convincing as we now have instance after instance of Rida news pointing to its efficacy in various other trials.

Also, the timeline you describes as possible, suggests that the trial could be over, and well into the data evaluation stage. We are 40+ weeks passed the final patient enrollment. Let's say your estimate of 27 weeks for proof was off by 20%, making it 32/33 weeks. Add 8-10 weeks for data, we're perhaps 3 weeks from Rida SUCCESS data.

While there could be plenty of surprises in life, this situation is looking good.