Replies to post #5 on iClick Interactive Asia Group Ltd (ICLK)

[Fallingknife75]

The P/S comparison is nice food for thought. I try not to look past the next 2 quarters usually myelf though.

Looking at the numbers for the coming earnings call im staying a bit conservative. Assuming 25 to 26m in revenues I think .04 earnings is likely. Analyst range is .02 to.05 with .03 being concensus. I basically used the same ratios as last quarters report. I backed out the facilities charge though.

Seems to me the hardest part on forecasting earnings (other than it is just guessing anyway) is the taxes.

In Q1 they recorded a tax benefit of 1,079,108.
In Q2 they recorded a tax expense of (1,218,234).

Given the loss and profits of Q1 and Q2 respectively the taxes basically are a wash for the first 1/2 of the year which is good.

For a company with roughly 24m shares outstanding, tax swings like shown above wreak havoc with the bottom line; I assumed a 52% tax obligation in my numbers as management implied.

I think it is probably better to focus on the revenue growth ICLK has and just keep an eye out for improved efficiency than to try and forecast an EPS right now. Analysts get paid to do that, and they arent verry good at it either. lol

Staying long

[Helium-3]

Falling knife, I couldn't agree with you more regarding earnings. I think right now most shareholders are focused on revenue growth. I'll be honest i'm a little "fuzzy" on the business model even though i've read the profile and company info. What caught my eye and continues to hold my interest with ICLK is their sales growth, nearly doubling every year. I'm thinking in order to get a per share price of over $15 we would need to show at the very least $0.25 eps per quarter, and since we are talking about current eps of something less than a nickle this is not likely to happen for the next 12 months. Although anything is possible.

Good luck to us

[bpvitale]

Sound Analysis - Also watch INUV

I agree that ValueClick and others in the industry/sector currently trade at multiples between 2-3 times price/sales and that ICLK is currently trading below the group, at roughly 1.6 times price/sales. I like CEO Mathews very much, have been following him for a couple of years now and think he's done an outstanding job.

For those who own it at lower levels, congrats, and i think the stock will continue to perform well as the company continues to roll out their new OSM platform.

Another small competitor that maybe worth paying attention to is INUV, a stock i've been buying over the last nine months. INUV just recently pre-announced two weeks ago and expects reveneus to jump 52% YoY to just over $14 million and a 23% increase secquentially. They've got a new management team in place and all the insiders continue to buy stock.

With $51 million in TTM revenues, INUV is currently trading at just 0.6 times price/sales, so if ICLK is undervalued 1.6 times price/sales and going higher, INUV may really be cheap (relative to the group).

And if we apply a 2.6x multiple, it puts INUV at around $1.50 per share.

Good luck.