Replies to post #2364 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[glass_half_full]

Thats what everyone believed would happen if we lost the Lilly lawsuit as well. But the stock went up. I'm not saying we would go up if SUCCEED failed, but it may not be as bad as you might think.

The ELY lawsuit was a useless distraction. I tried to explain that in as rational terms as I could on the Yahoo board (I don't think there has ever been a more aptly named community on the web) but I think the upshot was that (1) losing was priced in by the smart money and (2) they liked the idea of ARIA getting back to doing what they're (hopefully) best at: developing compounds.

This second part is where I believe the SUCCEED trial still hold enormous import for ARIA. True, they'll get royalties from sales and cash flow is critical for biotechs and this avoids dilution -- that whole line of reasoning is valid.

More important is that SUCCEED is the first test case of ARIA's development bench and is the canary in the coal mine regarding their pipeline. I know that 534 (what is it now? PonyTailimus? I forget.) seems to be the real deal, but there is a big difference between having a resume of all winners vs. a mix of home runs and strike-outs (to mix metaphors).

IMHO, people who are looking past 534 are the ones watching SUCCEED the closest -- and that includes every take-over candidate.