Not over until the fat lady sings, especially with the valuation issue still looming, and the equity seems to get last minute concessions in alot of these bankruptcy cases. Someone seems to be buying up shares the last few days.
What is most confounding is that we were right about the residual and hidden upside value as evidenced by the massive recovery that the EPA received. What we were dead ass wrong about was who was going to get that upside value. When the equity traded up to $1.30 and $1.40 and the bonds traded at $120 to $130 the respective markets were reflecting nice recoveries for all levels of the capital structure. The EPA recognized this and went back to the Debtors who were all too eager to give away the farm just as they were when they had agreed to sell the entire enterprise for less than half of its value to Huntsman. Now this management team that had virtually no equity stake in a debt and environmental liability ridden company will walk away with a nice equity position in a deleveraged company with no remnants of the old legacy liabilities. The EPA gets a hefty payday and 88% of the proceeds of the Anadarko/Kerr McGee litigation. And another perfect masterpiece is painted by Kirkland Ellis.
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