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JimWillieCB

10/23/02 11:29 PM

#597 RE: SOROS #595

I still wonder what happens to brokerage accounts when the house goes down

worse, suppose a conglomerate BANK-INSURANCE-BROKERAGE goes bust
if an insurance experiences heavy losses, goes down, will the bank split it off to die?
if a brokerage gets sued without mercy, goes down, will the bank split it off to die?
if a bank faces derivative blowups, goes down, will the insurance company split it off to die?
or will they gather together, fend off the storm, attempt to survive?
I say they split, so watch Citicorp now
Travelers shholders want out, Salomon is under fire

the repeal of Glass-Steagal Laws in 1997 brought these financial arms together just in time for the bust
Citicorp will serve as an excellent example for learning how these mindless and collusive corrupt conglomerates will react to crisis, whether with solvency or prosecution or lawsuit
I expect all three in some cases

what synergy ever existed?
I will tell you
the synergy is for the insurance firm to offset bank derivative leveraged exposure
for the bank to engage in gold smashing and currency support for the benefit of brokerage
for false deceptive messages to be promulgated by brokerage analysts in support of investment banking, and to keep the insurance portfolios strong

the only missing link in these elephantine mammoths is to take on some press/media mouthpiece
God help us if they succeed

right now I believe the American public is extremely poorly served by press/media now, as they are beholden to their advertisers, many of whom hail from the financial industry with a vested interest in paper-based securities

I am anxiously watching the Citicorp Salomon Smith Barney Grubman Weill case
this has dead fish written all over it
Sandy Weill will be pulling out all his political chips
Rubin calls Clinton? count on it
/ jim

JimWillieCB

10/23/02 11:41 PM

#598 RE: SOROS #595

2-yr Treasurys offer a yield higher than the FedFunds rates
we have some powerful nasty forces working under the surface now with this "FF spread"

if you are a friend of Bill's, you can borrow shitcheap money at 1.6% and invest it for 2% on the 2YR

this spawns some Treasury carry trade, powerfully coercing the Fed to lower interest rates
but they wont
because Sir Alan is powerless and dickless

we have some colossal forces working against the USdollar now
another carry trade is the dollar-euro
borrow 1.6% in shorterm US$, invest in longerm EuroBonds paying over 5%

these carry trades can be supercharged via futures contracts
they call them hyper-carry with 30:1 leverage

the dollar will be yanked down horizontal faster than a horny cheerleader as long as these carry trades are available

I have been psyched all evening long pondering that wonderful JYen chart posted earlier, indicating a surprise yen bull rally to rip the dollar's nuts off
we could see simple dollar-yen carry trade here, once it gets going

go gold, show no fahking mercy !!!
/ jim