Replies to post #37960 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[punkle]

Hi Zeev, if you have the time please give us your take on the AMGN earnings (disclosure - I'm short from around 49 and of course under water...).

My "short" view is trying to get my arms around:

1) The increase in "Immunex" expenses from a planned $2.4B (July estimate) to $2.9B. It is often "open to intepretation" as to how much of normal AMGN expenses you can "throw in this bucket" and the more you throw in the "one time bucket" the better your earnings will look IMHO.
2) It appears they guided down from the following:
"Looking ahead, the drug maker lowered its 2002 guidance, projecting adjusted earnings-per-share growth in the midteens, compared with its previous raised guidance of mid-20% growth. The company initially expected full-year earnings- per-share growth in the low-20% range."

Those two items confuse me as to the AH rise other than the whole market is flying.

Greatly appreciated if you could provide your brief analysis on their latest earnings and "where you think we go from here in terms of price."

P.S. I'm still shocked with KLACs stock performance after guiding down so much and getting 5 downgrades the next day (and underwater there too).

I'm doing well this year overall but this is putting a damper on my success level and I may capitulate if I'm still swimming upstream in the next couple of days.

Thanks.

Thanks.

[punkle]

Hi Zeev, if you have the time please give us your take on the AMGN earnings (disclosure - I'm short from around 49 and of course under water...).

My "short" view is trying to get my arms around:

1) The increase in "Immunex" expenses from a planned $2.4B (July estimate) to $2.9B. It is often "open to intepretation" as to how much of normal AMGN expenses you can "throw in this bucket" and the more you throw in the "one time bucket" the better your earnings will look IMHO.
2) It appears they guided down from the following:
"Looking ahead, the drug maker lowered its 2002 guidance, projecting adjusted earnings-per-share growth in the midteens, compared with its previous raised guidance of mid-20% growth. The company initially expected full-year earnings- per-share growth in the low-20% range."

Those two items confuse me as to the AH rise other than the whole market is flying.

Greatly appreciated if you could provide your brief analysis on their latest earnings and "where you think we go from here in terms of price."

P.S. I'm still shocked with KLACs stock performance after guiding down so much and getting 5 downgrades the next day (and underwater there too).

I'm doing well this year overall but this is putting a damper on my success level and I may capitulate if I'm still swimming upstream in the next couple of days.

Thanks.

Thanks.

[Bacchus_II]

In no way I could challenge your earning apparatus and it was not my intent. Like I said, I still believe you are a great market monitor and one of the best market timer I know. I’m still reading all your posts and will be influenced by you, no matter what you think of me and it‘s all my responsibility.

My of post was to emphasis that LT (I should say Medium Term in my case) strategy can’t mix well and I’m learning.

Gottfried_II