CharlesD...great chart!
Just to be ultra conservative I will stick with a yearend
user number of 55 million. We agree with this year's end of the
year tally of around 27 million. I am going to say that they
average new user additions per month of about 2.3 million. This
gets me to almost exactly 55 million by December 2012.
OK....so let's say conservatively we have 55 million users by
12/2011. Right now it looks like FaceBook is generating about
$20 per user in revenues. How do I get that number? Well, analysts
are saying that FB is producing revenues of about $1 Billion on
about 500 million users. So, that's $2 per user in revenues.
OK...let's say that QPSA only generates 1/4 of that because it
is smaller than FaceBook and doesn't have the same brandname yet.
So, if QPSA is only $1 per user in revenues and I take a blended
average of users next year (40 million) then we get $40 million.
Add in 10 million in revenues from ads and you get $50 million.
Companies like QPSA are being bought out at about seven times
revenues. Cut that back to four times revenues gets you to
about $200 million market cap.
there are 13 million shares O/S. so that gets you to about
$15 per share.
a little more conservative than you but still amazing growth. And
I am using very very conservative numbers, i think!
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