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stanu78

02/19/05 11:36 AM

#4907 RE: wadegarret #4901

I agree Wade. 2-3 quarters. The most important thing is actually whether you think the profitability will continue in the future or even if it can grow form that point. and of course having more than 1 consequtive profitable quarter from operation helps reduce the risk. and at the same time the longer you wait theoritically reduce your return potential.

I remember with MDPA when I waited 2 consequtive quarter I have to bought in at .30 instead of .06-.10 which makes a lot of difference (in terms of the amount of return). but as wade pointed out earlier today... buying at .06 is a lot riskier and high chance that MDPA will go bely up and give you 100% loss...

estimating the business prospect/demand in future for the company is very very important (not to the exact $ number) but the diretional of the business. for example TRCI they turn profitable for several quarters but the business they are in aren't growing very fast and competitors comes in quickly and start eatind their margin and the last 3 quarters profit has decreased though sales increase... I wonder if they will be able to maintain profitability.. hence the stock tanks from $18 to $6... similar story with NTST (though NTST continue to be profitable they have income tax and tax credit during their 100% profit growth period)

Stan
PS: Wade.. you are a night crawler lurking at past midnight (unless you are in the western time zone)