The Detroit Lions were supposed to be better this year. Instead, they are again losing games. While they are 0-2 straight up, they have covered the number twice. But, things just never seem to change for this team, especially on the road. They have now dropped their last 21 games on the road, and the defense takes center stage as the culprit. The Lions defense allowed 33.7 points per game on the road a year ago, so this should be the breakout week for the Vikings. Minnesota has scored just 19 points in two games but their average simply isn't going to stay there. And, getting the Lions at home is the recipe for a change. If Minnesota gets their expected 30+ here, it doesn't leave much scoring to be done by the Lions to push this one over the total. The Vikings managed a minimum of 27 points per game at home a year ago, and following an ATS loss the OVER has cashed in at 24-10-2 in their last 36. The Lions are 17-7 to the OVER when posted as a dog of 10.5 or more in their last 24. In their last ten games when allowing 28+ points, the Lions have gone OVER nine times. Under Brad Childress, this Vikings team is 20-10 OVER after an ATS loss and 10-2 OVER following a back-to-back ATS losses. This one goes OVER the total.
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Baltimore off a tough loss to the Bengals. Flacco picked off 4 times. Now, they have their home opener. Baltimore has beaten this Browns bunch by a combined score of 115-40 the last 4 times they have played. It's good to be home.
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Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, September 26, 2010 1:00 PM EDT
Pick: Minnesota ATS
This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and the Vikings despite starting out 0-2 have been very unlucky in both games. If you study the Vikings games closely you will see that they should actually be 2-0 to start the season. The Vikings will put up big numbers against this Detroit defense that has allowed an average of 27 points per game this season. The Lions will have a very hard time scoring against this stingy Vikings defense that has only allowed an average of 14 points per game this season and an average of just 267 total yards per game. The lions are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against an NFC North opponent and they are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played in week 3 of the season. The Lions are just 2-6-2 against the spread in their last 10 games played against Minnesota and they lost both games last season against the Vikings by 17 points and 14 points. The Lions will get a hungry Vikings team that is still one of the best teams in the NFL and the Vikings will look to prove just that with a dominating win at home Sunday. Take Minnesota as my free NFL Pick for week 3 as they win by at least 21 points if no major injuries occur during the game.
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3* on Tennessee Titans
Reasons the Titans cover:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY GIANTS) - off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses. This is a 42-12 ATS System hitting 77.8% since 1983. The Titans are 33-15 ATS in their last 48 games against non-conference foes.
2.) The Giants have many issues, and players are even starting to question the coaching staff. They were lucky to beat Carolina in Week 1 in a 31-18 victory, with the Panthers turning the ball over 5 times. Their true colors came through last week in a 14-38 loss at Indianapolis. Tennessee gave Pittsburgh the game last week by committing 7 turnovers, yet they still had a chance to tie the game in the closing seconds. It's clear to us that the Titans are the better team this year, and we'll take them showing nice value as an underdog Sunday. Bet the Titans on the road.
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The Ravens are going to be red-assed after allowing just 24 points and just 429 combined yards in two games and coming away just 1-1. The Browns aren't much, in fact their offense is close to non-existent but they do play defense (17, 16) and it hasn't taken much to slam the brakes on Flacco & Co to this point. This has 16-13, 20-9, 17-10 written all over it. Play the Under.
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