If, as you say, and I trust in your analysis, that the TA shows news is imminent, and I can represent that the board agrees news is imminent, then the stars are just about in perfect alignment for ARIA. The only possible bad news could come from Rida trials, and negative news there would have less impact that it might have had just a few months ago.
The news coming was succinctly put by Don_S, and his activity reflects the low volume you point out in the stock...
"I haven't been posting as much simply because my position is set and I'm waiting for the ponatinib trial to start, the rida final analysis, and an update on the endometrial trial."
So we mark time, although we'll likely edge up into the news releases. Only bad rida news could send us toward the low 3's or lower, but bad news is unlikely (perhaps in a close call or not), and positive 534 news will overshadow it, and the probably of endless good news from 'pony' is high. (Best of all, it's keeping desperate, doomed people alive, and I can't imagine their elation as they get access to the drug. Even the FDA must recognize that sooner is better there. )