Replies to post #2069 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[Whosetosay]

Perhaps now all the big boys bets are on the table as you say, noting also someone was making a move last few weeks as we anchored in the $3.50's for days on end. We'll be marking time, but not for long, and then the news. We should edge up prior to it.

FMR got crushed in IMGN, and had a small piece of ARNA (Wellington had a bad day). No insider owned more than 400K or so shares of ARNA. All in all, especially in the longer term, the risks in ARIA are much lower.

[bellweather1]

*I agree that they have no choice but to sell some of all of their holdings in view of overall outflows, which is the basis of many murky technical pictures, ariad included.

My primary point, however, is that this type of (generalized) selling doesn't tell us much about institutional confidence in ariad's prospects, or the likely response to positive results, because it's primarily a function of institutional discipline in the face of enduring fund outflows,window dressing issues, paring of high beta stocks in volatile markets, etc.

Nevertheless, since we know that the risk/reward is positive and that there are likely to be few if any sellers post positive binary data, the logical posture for full position holders (many, if not most of us on this board)is a hold.

*2da, thanks for reminding us about the IMGN and ARNA effects on FMR-just reinforces their discipline to par "risk positions"(like ariad), but again has little or no effect on our appropriate strategy.


Best regards,

bw