mr omro,
first of all, try to use paragraphs, it makes reading your post easier on the eyes. Second, your post is very much in line with mgt's vibe, which by the way I don't trust.
You say:
The statement in slide 14 'biogenic methane gas discovered across all ERHC blocks' unfortunatley may lead one to the conclusion that post-drill there will be little oil and I would guess a few tcf dry gas in total for all blocks. So what went wrong? Why the disappointing results? Was 25% chance of sucess realistic? It is possible the results shouldnt be particularly surprising since deep water drilling for oil really requires more sediment than may be present in JDZ.
Quite interesting that the gas is described as biogenic. That means it was not generated thermally, suggesting no active petroleum system which is very problematic. It may be interpreted as meaning there is no evidence of mature source rock in this part of the basin.
Does it lead YOU to the conclusion that post-drill there will be little oil? What about condensate? What about the fact that mgt refuses to comment on there being no thermo-gas? You're not fooling me. In my opinion, thermogas was also found, and that has been overly discussed here.
You also state:
Regarding the delay in announcing the commencement of phase 2, it is possible that nobody wants to drill another well there given the disappointment of the first round of drilling. So why not just withdraw right away and write it off? Well ONGC did just that. But knowing the Chinese penchant for hanging on to stuff in W Africa it may be more a tactic to retain the licenses without having to spend any more money on a new well. I suspect if JDA demand they drill another well in phase 2 then they may bail out.
How do you know ONGC wrote it off because of bad Phase 1 drilling results? Perhaps is has to do with other reasons, for example working with the Chinese? Please point to one, just one, example where ONGC has worked together as a partner with the Chinese.
Also, perhaps ONGC does not have the LNG experience that Total or SNP have.
Krombacher
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