curious if folks think the run up looks sustainable and a new floor is going to be set. -Kurt
Hi Kurt,
I tend to think it is--granting that there's going to be down days. Here's my rationale. In early January when SIAF was the buzz a lot of people thought, given what was then known, that buying in in $1 to $1.40 range was a great entry point, and accordingly many did just that. No doubt some people sold out, perhaps quite a few, at a loss as it went down in the spring. But my guess is that more held than sold. Fast forward to today with the stock closing at $1.25, and we're right back to those early January prices, but with a lot more proof of concept in hand. In particular, new investors now have two more quraterly reports to look over, a dividend in place, a 12 minute virtual tour of the company to examine that helps assuage doubts about legitimacy, a fish farm well underway, another cc to with up-to-date projections and very robust ones at that. Further, the management's decision to invite some instiutional and individual investors to come tour their full range of facilities has done a lot to raise confidence in the company as well as foster greater overall awareness of it. Evidence of this is of course showing itself in consistent volume. But it's also clear that after the JordanFund delegation returned from the tour (I believe they sent 5 people to examine the facilities in person) they have become much more outspoken about their conviction that SIAF is their number one pick--Bonebreaker, as you probably noticed, just said today that "Sino Agro Foods potential have now begun to spread very well in northern Europe." (I'd be interested to know what other institutional investors were invited to make the tour.) Last but not least, the underlying story has remained fully intact--including government support and multi-year tax breaks--with some quite promising events on the near horizon to attract new investors: the audits, getting off the pinksheets, and just about 8 weeks away from what's apparently shaping up to be a very good quarter with more in line behind it. It doesn't hurt, either, that the JordanFund anticipates the share price to be at or above $2 at year's end, which even from today's close constitues something like a 60% gain.
In short, I think a lot depends on whether one is looking forward or backward. All the above is forward looking. Looking backward, the price has shot up so fast that it doesn't seem "real" and hence sustainable. But here I'm inclined to think that the sell off was way over done and therefore doesn't constitute a realistic point of reference. Or, to put it differently, the current prices strike me as more in sync with the opportunity at hand than where the stock was three weeks ago. We'll see. All I know is that I'm not selling; I'd rather watch it go down for a while and ride it back up than try to time either an exit or re-entry.
Good luck to all,
Steve
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