The reason the $SPX has not seen the July low is that it may have already sen its 80 week low. As slinky describes, what we may be seeing is a secondary low. We have seem major cycle lows forming in may different stocks and indices in the last 10 week period.
Have a look at the Toronto Stock exchange. Early July was likely the 80 week low. It came early on great rallies from agri stocks and then gold and mining shares.
The power of today's rally has narrowed the e-wave count to wave 2 correction of wave that which started at the August 2010 highs. With that as the reference, this correction has retraced to the first fibonacci area of 38-40%. The duration of this coutertrend rally is relatively short, and would look better with a 3-4 day choppy selloff followed by another 3-4 day rally to the 50% fibonacci area.
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