former post edited:
You are right that **IF** there was nothing commercial already found in Phase I in the JDZ to date, but still there existed the slight prospect of something to be found in future drillings, then $16 million might be worth the "slight prospect" and thereby worth keeping the rights, and so one can conclude that without a $16 million investment, SNP must believe that there isn't even a "slight prospect" left in future exploration...BUT, don't forget the first part of the sentence which starts with **IF**.
I will state it again: **IF** there was nothing commercial already found in Phase I.
**IF** that were the case, then not only would Phase II not be announced, it would NOT be announced that on-going analysis for a Phase II was taking place either. That's the key.
Therefore, one must conclude that something in the middle was found. If it were cut and dry completely non-commercial there would be no Phase II and no $16 million paid, but also no on-going analysis for Phase II. If it were cut and dry non-commercial with a slight prospect in future drillings, then no Phase II but $16 million would be paid to retain the rights, with no on-going analysis for Phase II. If it were cut and dry, commercial then Phase II would be announced immediately.
The fact that on-going analysis was announced debunks your theory that neither Phase II nor $16 million would be spent because of complete non-commerciality.
Krombacher
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