Replies to post #7727 on Short Term Trading Member Forum

[Profit_Ace]

I read with interest that Mr. Wolanchuk of the famed newsletter postulates that the Wednesday before week of expiration is often a down day because hedge fund managers and other big players often roll over options on this day. The mkt proceeds to shoot back up rest of the week. Therefore, in that light, today's action maybe less malignant than it seems. As well, I notice from reading many boards that sentiment has suddenly gotten very bearish with many standing to the side as they fear a more precipitous drop ahead. To me that seems a very good contrary indicatior.

[mr_cash4]

bliss, I know that the dog is supposed to wag the tail, but I am just wondering outloud if we are perhaps seeing the repeat of 2002 action where (after the rally out of 9/21/01) NDX actually topped in Dec-01, then Naz topped in Jan-02, and even though SPX and DJIA rallied into March-02, NDX and Naz went to much lower highs in March, and then all indexes collapsed first into Jul-02 and then Oct-02, so eventually the tail did end up wagging the dog.

not saying that it WILL happen at this point, but NDX is looking pretty bad right now, so have to keep that option open.

[uncle_chubbie]

No, just first half, second half should be very bullish.

[uncle_chubbie]

Not 2002, carbon copy of last year, look what happened to tech last February.