Replies to post #1457 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[bladerunner1717]

Well, at least Roubini is not as bearish as Rosenberg. LOLOL


If you're looking for signs that the U.S. economy is on the mend, you may want to steer clear of Nouriel Roubini's Twitter page.

The famed economist set off waves yesterday when he tweeted: "Q3 GDP growth very likely to be below 1 percent; and likely to be closer to 0% than to a pathetically lousy 1 percent. So double dip risk is now > 40 percent."

Roubini, who is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics and a professor at NYU's Stern School of Business, called into CNBC this morning to explain his statement.

The chances of a double-dip recession in the U.S. are now above 40 percent and second-quarter GDP growth will be revised down to an annual rate of 1.2 percent from the Commerce Department's July reading of 2.4 percent, Roubini said.

Based on the current data, third quarter growth will be well below one percent with growth closer to zero percent in the second half of 2010, he noted. Any recent improvements in the economy have come as a result of inventory adjustments rather than growth in final sales, Roubini added.

And there's hardly anything the Fed can do about it because they're "running out of policy bullets," Roubini argued. Fiscal stimulus programs, which were "tailwinds in the first half of the year...are going to be essentially headwinds."


Bladerunner

[bellweather1]

Hi Bladerunner,

When I said "temporary", I wasn't referring to the Macro economy(I'm pretty bearish myself for many of the reasons you refer to), but rather to ariad continuing to be treated as just another biotech risk asset.

If we get positive news(particularly, IMO, positive Succeed results), that should change greatly, or at least hike our trading range considerably because ariad's financial stability would be strongly confirmed.

Since financial uncertainty is a major aspect of biotech riskiness, largely removing it (coupled with a practically sure thing like 534) should put ariad on a different and much more stable footing in the eyes of the marketplace(something akin to junior pharma).

So I agree that the economy in general is in pretty sorry shape, but unless things totally fall apart(eg. we get a real war in the middle east-something much more likely than I would like to think) I believe ariad still has the potential to escape this characterization as just another biotech bet.

And with that, we may finally start to see some "relatively stable" pps growth.

BTW thanks for all your insightful posts over the last few years.

Regards,

bw