Replies to post #101952 on Biotech Values

[zipjet]

Robyn Karnauskas of Deutsche Bank forecasts that US Tysabri sales will fall from $633M in 2010 to $376M in 2015 as newer and safer MS drugs reach the market.

I'm all in for safer, IF EFFECTIVE, MS treatments. (My wife is on Tysabri after failing Copaxone.)

BUT what I am hearing is that Gilenia carries a cancer risk. Weighing a quantifiable PML risk against an unquantifiable cancer risk versus the ravages of MS is awful.

ij

[DewDiligence]

Copaxone Continues Cleaning Tysabri’s Clock in US Market

[Updated for 3Q10 Tysabri sales.]


The US market is the one of consequence for MNTA investors insofar as
this is where MNTA/NVS have submitted an ANDA for generic Copaxone.
Below are Tysabri and Copaxone US sales for the past nine quarters with
the recent year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter growth rates. Copaxone
outsells Tysabri in the US by better than 3:1.

 
       -------TYSABRI-------    ------COPAXONE------- 
       US $M  Y-o-Y   Q-o-Q     US $M  Y-o-Y   Q-o-Q   
       Sales  Change  Change    Sales  Change  Change 
 3Q10   151   +15%     +4%        *      *       * 
 2Q10   145   +16%     +7%       531   +21%     +4%  
 1Q10   135                      513 
 4Q09   137                      509 
 3Q09   131                      540 
 2Q09   125                      438 
 1Q09   116                      430 
 4Q08   115                      384 
 3Q08   122                      352

*Teva reports 3Q10 Copaxone sales on Nov 2.