Getting ready for your homecoming ol' golden mutt! I've warned the Jackass Porch sitters to clean it up and get rid of the garbage, or I'll move the porch to a moderated, nice urban (or desert) area.
Anyway, I was working on some very unscientific, yet highly deranged mathematical calculations I call "the SOROS' formula". Here are my findings. My most likely scenario could play well with your "Potential Pothole".
I remain,
SOROS (still slinging your golden poop on SI for you)