Looking at it again...
I'd guess it will take at least a year to a year and a half before it becomes at all likely that the shift in public awareness would begin to accelerate in a way to require the sorts of changes I've discussed here...
A wild card out there in the results of the next election, which could alter the trajectories in interesting ways... potentially accelerating recognition of problems... and thus recognition events.
It will be interesting to see if the Fed action this week does become something more... perhaps proving to be an inflection point in the shifting probabilities between risks of inflation vs deflation than the timing outlined above would suggest ?
If the time lines in the political evolution aren't in synch with the elements of timing in the real economy... meaning I'm wrong about the potential likelihood of Fed inaction leading to an acceleration into deflation, that then requires greater excess in the effort in countering it ? Still not clear to me how that "success" in prevention... this week... does more than kick the can down the road, waiting for the next source of crisis to bring new challenges. The debt problem will still be there, still growing, all the more given Obama's impositions on the future... and still with no exit in sight to the problem of the banks... the persistent lack of credit availability that is likely to persist for as long as the growth in government debt follows the trend it is on, but, more, the persistent lack of meaningful reform addressing the basic problems ?
That's it for my current post vacation "review" of where we are...
Wasn't that fun ?
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