USdollar is very close to breaking its bear pennant flag I refer to the support line in this flag pause pattern clearly evident in July, August, September, and into Ocotober
check the line support connecting the following points: (main price chart) 103.5 in mid-July 105.4 in early Sept 106.5 and 106.95 in early October
while a move below 105.5 would not mean a break below the critical July lows, it WOULD mean a nearterm breakdown in the pause pennant pattern pause pennants allow a market to take some time, reflect, examine the fundamentals (all worsening), and then to resume after the oversold condition is resolved the USdollar oversold condition is long gone
two other fine points to mention: the Relative Strenk is weakening, now below midrange 50 no evident gain of strenk for the buck since July that is in the top cycle chart
the Daily Stochastix is showing a Bearish Divergence notice in mid-August and early-Sept the big black wavey line shows a downtrend pattern from 85 top to 70 top, now turning down at 50 that identifies a Bearish Divergence, whereby the dollar is rising in a weak upward pennant, but the downtrend DStoch is a sign of weakness now in early-Oct, we have the potential for that DStoch downtrend to have a third top to occur, as it is turning down now
I have personally seen dozens of such patterns Bear Divergences and Bull Divergences are very reliable when the nearterm support breaks, things start to unravel we will see very soon October is such a deadly month, as is September
GOLD will go nowhere unless/until USdollar breaks down or until TrezBonds reverse toward higher rates or BOTH, probably BOTH, since investors as so stupid / jim
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