Replies to post #100557 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: MNTA valuation

If a generic Lovenox (with multiple generics) is worth $13 using [Canaccord’s] assumptions, then an approved M356 is worth quite a bit more, even in the multiple generic scenario.

Correct. Even after adjusting for the fact that Lovenox is a bigger-selling US drug than Copaxone ($2.7B vs $2.1B), the assured 50/50 profit split makes Copaxone potentially the more valuable product for MNTA on a cumulative apples-to-apples basis starting from the date of product launch.

For the record, I think the likelihood of an FDA-approved generic Copaxone in the next five years from someone other than NVS/MNTA is close to nil. Teva might have been up to the task, so it’s fortuitous for MNTA that Teva is not in the running for a generic Copaxone :- )