Replies to post #100116 on Biotech Values

[10nisman]

<< SNY/MNTA from yahoo boards FWIW: July 28, 2010
Enoxaparin award
Effective July 27 2010, Premier is pleased to announce the sole award of enoxaparin sodium (Lovenox) to Sanofi-Aventis. Sanofi-Aventis has provided Premier aggressive pricing as well as market leading Auto-sub and DSH pricing. Premier current estimated annual spend on brand Lovenox is more than $325 million. The new Sanofi-Aventis agreement for Lovenox will provide Premier members an estimated annual savings over the current base price of up to 40 percent, translating to approximately $46.3 million. How does this effect us when Premier and Novation are the two biggest hospital suppliers. >>

Not a huge surprise. I've estimated in my model a 40% U.S. market share for Sandoz and the above statement doesn't change that.

10nis

[zipjet]

The problem with that PR is that many people will come away with the idea that SNY is cutting prices of L by 40%. But when you do the long division the average cut is 14.24%.

That is approximately the same as mL pricing.

It seems to me, intuitively, that the natural market split is 50/50 by units. IF SNY matches the 14% discount on mL, then both sides get the same revenue.

ij