NG News: ANALYSIS-Nigeria's Jonathan eyes poll bid but needs north
Fri Aug 6
* Policy announcements suggest Jonathan eyeing bid
* Lack of northern endorsement delaying declaration
* Little time left for electoral reform
By Nick Tattersall
LAGOS, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan looks increasingly like a leader who plans to be in office after January polls, but it remains unclear how easily he can secure the core northern backing he needs for victory.
With less than six months to polling day in Africa's most populous nation, Jonathan has still not said whether he plans to stand. There is no date for ruling party primaries, campaigning has yet to begin and policy debate is non-existent.
But a string of recent announcements by Jonathan's administration -- from road-building and oil refinery projects to pledges on boosting electricity supply -- suggest he is a leader who wants to be seen to have a long-term plan.
"Jonathan is announcing public works projects that are akin to campaign vows," global intelligence company Stratfor said in a recent report on Nigeria.
"It is unlikely the initiatives will be completed before the elections are held ... Jonathan is taking a calculated risk, hoping the incomplete projects will be seen as demonstrating the need for a full term to finish what he has begun."
The challenge for Jonathan, an ethnic Ijaw and a Christian from the restive southern Niger Delta oil heartland, is securing the backing of the Muslim north.
An unwritten agreement in the ruling party dictates that Nigeria's highest office should rotate between the north and south every two terms. [ID:nLDE66Q1EY]
Jonathan inherited the presidency when northern President Umaru Yar'Adua died earlier this year part way through his first term, meaning a northerner should be Nigeria's next leader.
A bid by Jonathan could lead to protests from some factions in the north, but a failure to stand could cause unrest in the Niger Delta and threaten a year-old amnesty for militants.
Sources close to Jonathan say he is concerned about the implications of dropping zoning and about his own credibility as a candidate in polls he has pledged to make free and fair.
"There are different pressures on Jonathan. I'm pretty sure if he thought he might not win he wouldn't stand," said Antony Goldman, Nigeria expert and head of London-based PM Consulting.
"But on the other hand can he afford not to run? What would it mean for him as an Ijaw man back in (his home state) Bayelsa, how easy would it be to sell not running to his constituency?"
RAFT OF INITIATIVES
Jonathan has support from state governors in the south and the central Middle Belt, where the backbone of the army are from. Northern Muslim governors have acknowledged his right to stand but have stopped short of endorsing him. [ID:nLDE66Q27D]
The constitution says a presidential candidate needs at least a quarter of the votes in two thirds of the country's 36 states to win, meaning core northern support is key.
"Whether Jonathan announces his candidacy will depend on whether he and his allies can buy enough support, through spreading patronage projects and appointments throughout the country, to overcome northerner hostility," Stratfor said.
Presidency sources said on Thursday Jonathan was planning a minor cabinet reshuffle. [ID:nLDE6741GM] Some analysts said this could be a chance to use the redistribution of posts to placate possible opponents of his presidential bid.
The best way for Jonathan to win popular support would be to convince Nigeria's 140 million people he can improve mains electricity supplies. Even the wealthiest parts of the main cities are reliant on diesel generators.
Finance Minister Olusegun Aganga announced a week ago that agreement was near for a framework to make private power generation for the national grid commercially viable, potentially unlocking billions of dollars of investment and helping end chronic power shortages. [ID:nLDE66T20Q]
Oil Minister Deziani Allison-Madueke announced that wide-ranging legislation to reform the energy industry would pass in the coming weeks and a licensing round for new oil blocks would be held before the end of the year. [ID:nLDE66T123]
Lucrative oil blocks and reforms to put more of the mainstay energy industry in local hands are useful cards to hold for any administration seeking political favour, analysts note.
CAN THE POLLS BE CREDIBLE?
Jonathan has made organising free and transparent polls in 2011 one of the main aims of his administration. If he stands, he would want to do so knowing the polls could deliver him a credible mandate, analysts say.
"If all you do ... is to ensure that our elections are transparent, it shall be sufficient to endear you to the nation and you shall go down in history as one of our greatest leaders," retired military general Theophilus Danjuma said while Yar'Adua was on his deathbed and Jonathan was acting leader.
But with six months to go and no clear field of candidates, no debate and little time for electoral reform, it seems unlikely the next polls will be any more credible than the last.
"If you want a free and fair election, the time is too short," said Bismarck Rewane, head of consultancy Financial Derivatives. "There is not even a date for the primaries."
The Senate is expected next week to approve spending of up to $500 million on a badly needed update of voter lists by the electoral commission, but critics doubt there will be time fully to implement the reforms. [ID:nLDE6740NP]
A constitutional amendment passed last month set the polling date for January instead of April, but even before the change, the prospects of a truly credible election looked slim.
"People have known since 1999 more or less when this election would be. Would they really be more prepared with an extra few months? I rather doubt it," Goldman said.
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