No, I don't trust the data the government releases either. They're at best estimations, at worst deceit. But their figures are just one factor to consider among many.
The unemployment rate is higher than the official one. Inflation is higher than they say (to keep COLA's down). This practice was also prevalent during the Viet Nam War with the under-reporting of casualties.
"I have placed money on the short side thru September expiration." Is that early, mid-, or late September?
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