Replies to post #46 on China-Biotics, Inc. (CHBT)

[bUrRpPPP!]

really... you think more than 50 cents eps for the quarter?

[viking86]

ok, let me second guess you with my napkin math re. your guess that Q1/FY11 eps will be at least 50c.

They announced on July 7 that the Qingpu plant produced over 15 mt (metric tons) of bulk additives in Q1/FY11. That translates into:

15 x $1,283/ton = 19.24MM buld additives rev in Q1

How do I know it's $1,283/ton? Because in FY2010 the total bulk additives rev was 21.81MM with max. 17 mt produced (assuming 12mt capacity of old plant plus the 5mt produced in March 2010, the first production month of the new plant). That's 21.81M/17mt= $1,283/mt.

Assume retail sales is flat to Q1/FY10= 15.41M

So Q1/FY11 rev = 19.24 + 15.41 = 34.65M

Net Inc= 34.65 x 0.34 = 11.78M assuming same Net Margin as FY2010.

Q1 eps = 11.78/22.37= 0.526E

I'll take 0.50E and give you an A :)

I'll take