Replies to post #1735 on Value Microcaps Food, Agriculture and Soft Commodi

[stock_peeker]

Canfor CC didn't really help. Asked during Q&A about state of pulp markets and pricing, CEO says we're "scratching our heads", as historically when pulp prices shoot up as fast as they did this year, they almost always drop precipitously as the market reverses.

It seems like pulp has peaked and could stay high as US and European markets are tight, but some price drops are occurring in China, so that could act as a catalyst to push US-European pulp prices back down.

IMHO, the risk is that most investors who play in the pulp markets will have their fingers on the sell trigger if pulp prices do falter further here. Thus there could easily be a quick drop in prices of pulp which would cause a precipitous drop in pulp stocks. If the pulp prices are able to stay on the plateau rather than fall off the edge of the butte, maybe the pulp stocks can inch higher over time, but it seems many (like you) are just very wary of what may happen next week.

Putting it in fewer words, maybe pulp investors just see more downside risk than upside potential from here based on historical pulp price charts.

[nutsaboutgolf2001]

The "sell on news mentality" might have taken CFX lower today but it didn't. I am holding my shares but not buying more unless the stock price drops to under $13 a share. Part of the problem is that there are just so many screaming buys out there competing for money. For example the base metal miners also look rediculously cheap, I was lucky to load up on QUX just before today's nice pop. LME base metal inventories are declining at an accelerating rate, BWR also is enjoying another great day and is rediculously cheap. TCM.TO could pop any day. Also the steel/ iron ore companies look quite cheap, LIF.UN.TO which I have been accumulating is enjoying a strong day, and SID has been on a run of late, CLF which I'm out of is rallying nicely. We need more money moving into the commodity stocks for the group to take off, yet many advisors are recommending dividend paying companies; meanwhile technology companies by and large are posting strong earnings and investors are reluctant to sell them. I think a little patience is required here.