Replies to post #992 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[BTH]

I thought about Pfizer but they have Bosutinib. And, aren't they trying to get that drug right in there with Sprycel and Tasigna? '534 is the only one that gets all the mutations so, technically, all of these cos would want '534, but, Ariad, IMO, would be negligent in doing a deal with any company that already has a 1st or 2nd line therapy because it will be taking a back-seat and only be used for T315i indications IMO.

Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing MRK get '534 because it would give a lot of takeover spec for the stock.

I think Eli Lilly tried doing a CML drug with Supergen (maybe?) but it failed (I believe it wasn't a TKI). They could be a considered partner but I wonder if LLYs CEO hates Harvey after all the patent BS

I still think MRK or CELG

[intune]

Don - I suspect that Ariad is of significant interest to many companies looking for a successful small molecule pipeline. Sanofi, Takeda, Roche and AstraZeneca are just a few in addition to the obvious PFE, LLY, MRK, BMY, ABT and CELG. I agree that A Merck partnership for 534 will be a mistake. Your point that Merck will get all the benefit without having to pay the price is well made. On the other hand, if Rida succeeds, Merck will save at least $1billion over a few year time frame by buying Ariad outright.

Once an offer has been either made or accepted, Ariad will be in play and other bidders can be expected unless the first offer price is at the top of the range.

[rkrw]

I'd still put NVS as most likely considering their interest in continuing to dominate the CML space. Unless they have something else in mind wrt 3rd generation CML agents or strategies. I'd also mention Celgene and Millennium-Takeda as both being in the hematology space.