Replies to post #8198 on Baltia Air Lines Inc. (fka BLTA)

[NATRAC aka eyeforthedeal]

"determined criminals" and "the mafia"?? There must be something more substantive than this conspiracy silliness to offer! Geez - get some FACTS. Enlighten us with something besides fictional nonsense.

The U.S. Dept of Transportation has deemed Baltia's business plan to provide the first non-stop service between New York City and St. Petersburg, Russia to be justified, given the number of people who historically fly between circuitously between those points on airlines who do not provide non-stop service. Fact. Anyone who attempts to discredit everyone involved, including government officials, investors, analysts, travel agents, etc etc, is simply off the mark.

I've seen the airplane, and its systems checks have revealed that the airplane is in better condition than anyone expected. That being said, it needed a nose gear change due to callendar limits, and an auxilliary power unit (APU) was purchased and installed. Many checks were performed and systems (hydraulic, electrical, air cond, etc.) performed well.

There was a delay due to cowling issues, but it was solved. The work being done and availability of people to complete it, determined the time line, not $ constrictions.

The Malasian cost estimates are according to an FAA Designated Airworthiness Representative's maintenance scope. There is another large 747-200 operator, with many spares and parts available, helping oversee and look after Baltia's interests in Malasia, not to mention that Baltia's maintenance reps will be there.

There are many reasons why many airlines take their aircraft to these FAA approved facilities - cost is only one of them - availability of staff experienced on the specific aircraft type, parts availability, scheduling for the facility, and more . . . This facility has a good reputation and does good work, according to a Dir. of Maint. at another international airline that takes aircraft there - a reputable carrier.

On this route - New York / St. Petersburg - there is NO non-stop competition, and the enplanement/deplanement stats historically documented by the DOT Form 41 reports required quarterly from air carriers, reflect serious travel demand year-round (obviously the Nov/Dec months are extremely heavy.)

There are many opinions out there, but "the smart money" would use historcal data and other relevant information.

One more thing - there is NO Russian influence over Baltia, and the Dept of Transp assures just that - including making sure that Baltia is at least 75% owned by U.S. citizens, by federal law. This is a fact, no matter who any conspiracy theorist thinks.

[OkImLost]

My 2 Cents, Again - The Sequel

Actually boys & girls, there is a large amount of interest in non-stop service between US & Russia and has been for some time now as attested in the DOT filing:

DOT-OST-2007-0021-0010 Filed 5/10/2008

Reading backwards thru all these filings, you'll gain an understanding that there were a number of "Frequencies" negotiated between our 2 countries years ago which a number of airlines immediately applied for and then let "go dormant". Thus the term "Frequency Banking", a term (post 9-11) that the DOT is no longer taking lightly. United for example has been trying to bank some 7 frequencies for some 13 years, all of which have gone dormant.

It's not that there is no interest, but the majors (like United) who are banking these frequencies are so debt ridden and financially stretched with personnel strikes and their survival-merger with Continental, they're barely holding on to their current operations and have only recently seen it's first profit in years. These majors in that position, who co-incidentally are the same ones who are "banking frequencies", have only managed to hold their respective heads above water by cutting back services and routes as opposed to expanding into new markets.

Yet it is only little startup Baltia, economical yet debt free, who has managed to pioneer into this expansion market amidst of wave financial headwinds, post 9-11 and post-Lehman, into a market which in many opinions will prove quite lucrative. One example is that Polkovo is en-route to being the single largest air-freight hub on the Eur-Asian continent. Freight = Business concentration = wealth = passenger capacity, both biz & pleasure. It also acts as a springboard to allow BLTA to acquire a 2nd frequency covering Moscow (application already filed). BTW, I wouldn't be surprised with BLTA's new-founded alliances with Logistics, Evergreen, Atlas & Malaysia, that an air freighter isn't in BLTA's future at some point in time.

Also, and I've said this before, One of the things that I've learned over the years daytrading is that the single largest killer of share price, in this day and age, is not shareholder dilution but rather Balance Sheet Debt - of which BLTA has little to none. This is attested by the additional issuances of nearly all the major financial institutions in the past year and look what it's done to all their share prices.

I've also said this before, BLTA will forever be classified as a Regional Airline, even though it's a heavy equipment international operator, due to being a specific or limited destination carrier. However if you take the time to analyze the components within the Regional Airline Index (you can find it on yahoo) you'll see that each regional is not only smaller and specialized in their respective operations but highly profitable due to substantially more controllable cost structures and an inherent flexibility to add or alter routes as the economy see fit.

Bare in mind, as frustrating as any delay may be, we're still on the tail end of certification and literally on the threshold of active operations. And as for money and funding, once you're non-stop certified - you'll have accomplished what no other carrier has and in my estimate (IMHO) alone is worth $50M to $100M before the first flight leaves the ground, due to the fact that every subsequent additional route or frequency is merely a matter of duplicate set of applications and filings which you have already "templated". At that point do you really believe funding to be an issue? - IMHO, I think not.

GLnGT
-OK