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Replies to post #56703 on Plastic2Oil Inc (PTOI)
Posted by: rpg101 Member Level Date: Wednesday, June 24, 2009 3:44:52 PM
In reply to: zardiw who wrote msg# 380 Post # of 56798
any way, load it today, the fun is going to start tomorrow. IR just almost confirmed the merger for tomorrow. I estimate the revenues coming into TRTN to be in the 10s of million of $s, as NASA has millions of tapes to convert. Not sure how much they charge per tape, but assuming $10, we're looking at 2 million tapes (guessing a number) = 20 million $s
Posted by: rpg101 Member Level Date: Friday, June 26, 2009 4:25:25 PM
In reply to: A deleted message Post # of 56800
1 million * $22 = 22 million revenue. Now think 10 million tapes..... to da moon
Posted by: rpg101 Member Level Date: Saturday, June 27, 2009 10:07:21 AM
In reply to: zardiw who wrote msg# 779 Post # of 56776
zardiw, i really don't want to sound like pumping with what at the surface appears to be crazy forecast numbers. Let me tell you something, I've been a software engineer for 30 years. I started my computer life as a computer operator and performed many backups into tapes. I know for a fact that there are tens of millions of tapes out there degrading every year. I know that there are companies that offer data transfer services from old tapes to new storage media, but to my knowledge none of them guarantes the accuracy of the data. Some of the data in those tapes are important from an historical prespective, other from a scientific knowledge prespective. Either way, the data stored in those tapes can not just be trashed, they contain bits and bytes (actually zeros and ones, or a magnetized dot - 1 - or not magnetized - 0 -) of the accumulated human knowledge and experience. The service 310 offers is to my knowledge unique in the world, they guarantee the accuracy of the transferred data.
We have a known universe of many tens of millions of tapes to transfer. I have no idea what the gross profit on each tape is, but for the sake of conservative forecast lets assume is 30%. Lets also assume 310 can do 10 million tapes/year. This number maybe too high but everyone can adjust the numbers to their forecast. This forecast would provide $220 million dollars revenue and a $66 million gross profit year. This would translate into a $20 PPS. I know this sounds crazy for a company that a month ago had the PPS at 10 cents.
Now the plastic to oil process. This is an area I know little about, but i know plastic to recycle is accumulating in landfills because there are no buyers. There is an excelent article from http://www.ecologycenter.org/ptf/misconceptions.html From this article I would point the following:
"While offering advantages such as flexibility and light weight, it creates problems including: consumption of fossil resources; pollution; high energy use in manufacturing; accumulation of wasted plastic in the environment"
and
"Plastic manufacturers recently decided that they will not add post consumer materials to their resins used in the USA"
So where are most of the plastics going? You guessed it, landfills and we all know what communities think of new landfills. I have no idea how to forecast this into profit, but even small numbers like 5K/day per plant in royalties can add up very fast if 310 is able to sell thousands of franchises throughtout north america.
So for the numbers sake lets assume 310 sells 1000 plants and each produce a daily royalty revenue of $1000 (that I think is very conservative). This revenue is almost 100% profit. So each plant would generate 300K/year, times 1000 plants (very conservative IMO) = 300 million revenue/year. That would value the company on a conservative 10 PE at 3 billion, or $60 - share.
So now we have $20 share from the tape business and $60 from the P2O business. This is my official 3 year forecast: $80 share. This is why I'm still buying as I have more money available.
And the best, this company is not run by a clueless MBA. It's run by a man that knows the technical side of the business and knows what is possible or not.
Posted by: rpg101 Member Level Date: Tuesday, July 28, 2009 10:56:23 AM
In reply to: BRIG_88 who wrote msg# 2734 Post # of 56783
http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19670010532_1967010532.pdf
look at page 13. 600 thousand tapes until 1985. they used these tapes until 1969 and this is only 1 of 13 data centers.
a simple math on 2325 500G drives times 50 thousand tapes per drive = 116 million tapes
Posted by: rpg101 Member Level Date: Thursday, September 10, 2009 10:18:59 AM
In reply to: BRIG_88 who wrote msg# 7116 Post # of 56786
still more, John transferred all the technology to the company for free as well. Can you guess how much the tape technology is worth? I heard some so call competitors were charging nasa $105/tape and in the end they couldn't do it to NASA specs. There are public records of how many tapes nasa and other government agencies have in storage. The Dept of energy alone has 20 million tapes (sysmic data). Can't tell you if they are our customer or not, but multiple that by $22 so you can have an idea of how much this technology is worth. And John gave it up for free.
07/13/10 6:21 PM
AI
