Replies to post #1161 on Intel Corp (INTC)

[fowler]

Elmer,

re: Did you notice that AMD said their Flash division continued to gain strength? That means the losses from the processor division are even worse than first glance.

AMD could end up a flash company.

John

[wbmw]

Elmer, this is my estimate for AMD's processor units this quarter.

First, here are last quarter's financials and statistics.

Total Revenue:    $600M 
 Core Products:    $594M 
 Foundry Services: $6.4M

PC Processors:    $380M 
 Memory Products:  $175M 
 IC Products:      $39M

Processor Units:  ~6M 
 Processor ASPs:   $63

This quarter, revenue will be $500M. Assumption is that AMD wound down foundry services to zero, memory products grew by 5% and IC products followed regular decline. That puts my estimates at the following:

Foundry Services: $0 
 Core Products:    $500

PC Processors:    $282 
 Memory Products:  $184M 
 IC Products:      $34M

With PC Processor revenue at $282, here are some likely ASP/Unit scenarios.

Processor Units:  ~6.3M 
 Processor ASPs:   $45

Processor Units:  ~5.6M 
 Processor ASPs:   $50

Processor Units:  ~5.1M 
 Processor ASPs:   $55

Processor Units:  ~4.7M 
 Processor ASPs:   $60

The middle two, in my opinion, are more likely than the first or last.

wbmw