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frenchee

01/22/05 9:30 PM

#25677 RE: was Steve #25674

works
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M3

01/22/05 10:04 PM

#25681 RE: was Steve #25674

are there any EW issues with this downdraft violating the B of 4?

None at all. The only concern (beyond exceeding the a=c at 1482 we've been discussing) would arise if the 4 of 5 overlaps 1 of 5. That's a rule that can't be broken except in the case of leading or ending diagonals, where instead of counting 12345, there can be overlap but it's counted abcde. Leading and ending diagonals, as their names suggest, only occur in the first or last wave, and since this is a 5, it's possible. The move we made into 12/31 had clear overlap and was an ending diagonal and the real debate is whether that was the 5 of 3 or 5 of 5, I'm leaning toward 5 of 3.

So by that chart we could go all the way to 1452.67 (1 of 5) and still be bullish. However, I count the the 9/21 high as the 1 of 5 based on the action of the S&P, so I think we could go all the way to 1440.81 and still be pointed up.

As far as my entry Friday though, I will not ride it all the way to 1440-1452. If we break 1482 I'll be on the verge of stopping. I may even reposition early Monday if it looks like they want 1482.

GZ got stopped out of his long. We may want those 200 days, a test of any of them, dow, naz, ndx, s&p would not overlap my 1 ups, so we'd still be pointed up.

We've got a turn date tues wed so if they want the 200 days they better get them in a hurry. We're about to launch imo.