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FinancialAdvisor

01/20/05 6:38 PM

#2413 RE: frenchee #2411

Hi frenchee, I've got a lot to say, I just can't put it in words sometimes. To sum it up and get to the point, the current market psychology so closely resembles 1929 psychology to the tee! And I mean to the tee, it's quite eery.

One reason I made this board because I wanted people to listen to me and what I had to say, I've had some strange things and events happen to me in the past that somehow led me to the stock market and I-hub and to create my own board. I created a board because I needed a forum for people to hear me and what I had to say.

I'm fortunate to even have people listening to me, a lot of people refuse to believe me about the current market! Including my own family members... well of course, no one wants to believe the man who forecasts even a shade of "doom", but I'll bet you the one who forecasts the Dow at 12,000 will have 1,000 times more followers.. and that's precisely my point! 1929 PSYCHOLOGY!! 1933, 1987, whatever, you name it. These markets are insane right now! It almost makes it seem like it's a criminal activity to buy put options or go short on the stock market.

What is your expected low point or criteria before a countertrend rally starts?

My current T/A is telling me what I posted here #msg-5112715

This would correlate with rising oil prices as well! The right technical formation in oil, and it's at $69/barrel, any break of $55, and all of a sudden you have a new support level on oil at $50-$55! See #msg-5112644

Here's the current oil chart, if you check that post, you can kind of see the W-bottom taking shape and even today's action seemed bullish as it pulled back just above $46



Right now, if you make a living trading stocks, then the way to go is short, every time you get the opportunity. I see a day approaching where the DOW will dunk 200 points like an oreo cookie. Clearly you can always buy shares from someone in this market, but can you always find someone to buy your shares?

The only counter-trend rallies I see occurring any time soon (if any) will be very short, such as the one we witnessed from Thursday's close into Tuesday's close, the rally lasted a whole two days from bottom to top, clearly not long enough to be called a counter-trend rally.

I may post some charts later on, I see that the QQQQ hit an important trendline support today. That if broken would signal another quick and sharp decline.

Best of luck!