Replies to post #97620 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Oppenheimer MS survey:

73% of neurologists thought use of Copaxone could decrease. On average, Copaxone use could decline by 18.6% if gilenia is approved.

Is the 18.6% figure the average of all of the surveyed neurologists or the average of the 73% who think Gilenia will have an impact?

They estimate Teva's 2011 EPS could drop 6.5% if gilenia is approved.

It will drop much more than that if the FDA approves generic Copaxone :- )

[genisi]

Another MS survey was mentioned in the Israeli media this time from Merrill:

Rival MS drug or not, Merrill likes Teva

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/business/rival-ms-drug-or-not-merrill-likes-teva-1.303127

By Lior Zeno

Worries that multiple sclerosis drug Copaxone will lose market share are overblown, and shares of Teva Pharmaceutical Industries are still worth buying, Merrill Lynch said yesterday.

Even though there's room for investors to worry regarding the multiple sclerosis drug, the matter has lost all proportions, the investment bank said, repeating its buy recommendation for Teva and giving the stock a target price of $75. The shares started the trading day at around $54 yesterday.

While competitor Novartis plans to release a rival drug, Gilenia, a survey of 73 neurologists found that Copaxone would continue to be the treatment of choice for at least the next several years, and will maintain its market share, Merrill Lynch wrote. Gilenia will not have much of an influence on Copaxone's sales.

The doctors also said they would be interested in a newer version of Copaxone that hurts less when injected, Merrill wrote.

The issue began a month ago when a committee at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration recommended approving Gilenia for sale. Gilenia would be the first multiple sclerosis drug administered orally.

The market for multiple sclerosis drugs is worth $10 billion a year. It currently contains four drugs, including Copaxone, all of which are administered by shots or infusions, causing pain to patients. Teva is currently working on a new, more concentrated version of the drug that would reduce the quantity in each injection.