BlissBull, so when did the US resolve their debts so they can bring confidence back into its currency? How much room is there to grow when economic, corporate and consumer debt is still at an all time high? Where is the major shift in investor sentiment that the economy is turning around? The US markets came off of a 17 year Bull run that ended in 2000. For the Secular Bull\Bear market to complete its course you need about a 14 year Bear. Its only been 5.
This so called bottom you are seeing is simply an inflationary spike. Everything bottomed out around 2002 and started moving up. It is a blip and is only the first blip of 3 before the Kondratieff cycle completes its Winter. About the same time Interest Rate bottomed out. What is going to happen when the feds start running those rates up at a faster clip. That is going to cut into corporate profits. What is going to happen when the SEC mandates that companies expense Stock Options? What will happen to P/Es?
If your portfolio kept up with the S&P all you did was keep your money from depreciating while the cost of goods went up. The true value of your holdings really went nowhere because your US Dollar was falling over the last several years. Your money became more worthless the longer you held it in any US Dollar based investments. If you don't believe me, compare US markets in 1966-1981 and 1981-2000.
IMO This Bear will run its course around 2017-2020. That should be the same time you see a massive spike in gold. To see what I mean look at the cross currnets going on between the Dow Indu and Gold. Gold ended a 17 year Bear market in 2000. Around the same time the Dow started its Bear run.
Look at the "Gold vs. The Dow Adjusted for Inflation" chart on this site.
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