Looks like a good opportunity to sell a bull put vertical spread
Buy the Sept 86 put 1.80
Sell the Sept 87 put 2.30
Collect .50/spread contract- you keep the entire premium if it closes above 87.00 on expiry.
Max loss .50
1:1 risk reward
You breakeven if it closes at 86.50 on expiration.
Theres a 45% probability that FXF will close above 87.00 on expiry.
You could also use the same strategy using calls where you would pay .50 for the spreads instead of recieveing the credit. Your max gain would still be .50 (as would be your max loss).
If you were to just buy the 87 calls, you would have to pay 1.65 for them, meaning you would need the stock to be at 88.65 to break even on expiry (and a 89.15 target to make .50), and where you have a 32% probability of expiring in the money.
Implied volatility is 14% for june and 12% for the next couple of cycles suggesting less price movement. Of course with currencies, they can shift overnight.
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