Replies to post #28662 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Claude Cormier]

FWIW, I expect a bull market in gold to last till the end of the decade. As it happened in the 1970's it will be the best investment. Both hysical gold and gold stocks are LTBH.

[greg s]

Joe, I wasn't around in 1932 but my Dad talked to me about it many times.

For "Joe6pax" on the street, the depression was a near wipeout. The truly fortunate were able to hold on to their homes. Many were displaced. Many lost their jobs in a non-existent job market. Many skilled folks had to try to find menial jobs to just stay afloat. On the other end of this spectrum for the common man were the land-blessed farmers. My mom was a farm girl in the depression and says she hardly knew it was going on as a youngster. They had their own dairy, beef, vegetables, fruit. They sold their excess for other necessities.

The fate of the better off varied widely. Some who wer die-hard speculators were totally wiped out. Many died paupers. Many were able to take the hit, swallow the losses, hold on, ... and came out the other end years later incredibly wealthy.

My dad is gone now and my mom's 84. But this is a synopsis of what they told me.

greg

Intel board - #board-369
Grateful Dead board - #board-1329

[Will Lyons]

I remember, but i did not know anyone who had anything to invest!
Homes were foreclosed farms were foreclosed and few had anything to invest and someone bought 100 shares of every stock that went below one dollar
There are a lot of them around already such as TGAL API SIDT VTSS LU but this may be different so be careful out there

[ranch hand]

DOW1932 bottom vs. NAZ2002 bottom.

The following is a collection of previous posts on other boards, updated with current market data. They are based upon my analysis of the 1932 bottoming process of the DOW. I study this period because I believe it represents how the market goes about efficiently deflating an extra exuberant bubble.

In 1932, the DOW bottomed at 714 trading days from its peak -- by my count September 24 is the 639 trading day (adjusted) since the NAZ top. DOW29 top plus 639 trading days was about March 18, 1932. If you believe that this NAZ 2000 bubble is deflating in a manner similar to the DOW 1929 bubble, then we are about 75 trading days away from a comparable DOW32-like bottom -- roughly in a December 2002/February 2003 window.

The July bottom of DOW32 occurred on the 714th trading day. Overlaying and aligning DOW 1929-1932 and NDX 2000-2002 charts indicates that we are in the Mar/Jul32 final flush.

If you study the DOW's final flush, it lasted about four months and removed about 10% to 15% of the final value (calculated off the high) from the DOW. That means about 500 to 750 points could possibly be subtracted from the Aug NAZ high of 1425. That's a 675 to 925 bottom -- and in an envelope within which many TA-type's bottom targets fall.

Also, this final drop of the DOW appears to have been the scariest drop of the entire 29/32 period. It appears that EVERYTHING dropped -- stocks, bonds, commodities, etc. Nothing escaped and both bulls and bears were decimated. The only thing left standing seems to have been cash (at the time, one could not legally possess gold). As of today, I still have not seen everything (DOW, NAZ, bonds and commodities) drop together, and I certainly have not seen the fear that one would experience when they realize there is no safe place to hide.

As an aside, I have noticed that the decent of the NAZ has been less volatile than the 29/32 DOW drop. The end % drop is the same (bubble gets deflated back to its pre-bubble base) -- just NAZ has been smoother and more organized in it's decent. I'm wondering if this could be the result of a more experienced FED and maybe a little PPT influence?

Hope this information is helpful.

[Sir Realist]

Re: the Depression. Like others, I've spoken to my parents at length about this. Mom was a farm girl and was not cognizant of any real difference on lifestyle. My Dad had an uncle with lots of rental properties who was quite well off.

Tenants often couldn't pay rent in that time. Evicting them was rarely a good option as no one else could afford rent either, so he let the good tenants stay (the ones who'd take care of the property). But since govts were strapped for cash, taxes went up and eventually, he lost most of his properties to tax foreclosures.

My folks indicate that the folks who did best offered escape from those depressing days: bars & movie theaters.

Perhaps it'll be booze and videos/DVDs this time around. BUD was around $28 when NASDAQ peaked in 2000... it came close to a double this year, and may yet reach 56... or higher.