Replies to post #2815 on Rule-Based Trading Systems

[northam43]

JLS - "Statistical comparison of SPY prices over the last 15 years indicates roughly 90% chance that SMA(320) will be tagged. That 90% says that's worth waiting for because I can buy in at lower prices. I don't count that super-spike of a couple weeks ago as a serious test of SMA(320) -- statistically, outliers should be filtered."

In the long term does the super-spike really have much impact?

I would think the super-spike would have the most impact with the Day Trader, the ones using the minute charts.


If you go back to this post, you will see that the super-spike had historical significants concerning the weekly cycle.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=50229552