Replies to post #96332 on Biotech Values

[wallstarb]

China started its 2009 rally WAY before the US (lows set in Nov 2008, it didnt break those lows in Mar 2009) - US took a few months longer to bottom - conversely China markets peaked in the winter of 2009/early 2010, and it has been setting lower highs (and lower lows) on each rally/pullback

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EHSI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^hsi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

I think that the US will bounce back SOME - but it will not see new highs, and the S&P 1200 will IMO be the top for years to come. I expect that each bounce/sell off brings us 4 - 5% lower, and we have a few to suffer through in 2010.

We covered our major short positons in the "market" (indices) but we are staying short the biotech hype stocks which seem grossly overvalued. IMO we got our small crap bio gains. The ones we see once in a decade or so, and now buyign the dip will cause more pain for most. Stuff like HGSI DNDN which have had "good results" or news but are grossly over valued by reasonable standards will need to find fair value in a weak market - you might see some great bargains come late summer or fall. But I think that things are buys on extreme sell offs and everything is a sell or short into the short lived bounces off those panic selling extremes, as the next wave will break below the previous lows.