Replies to post #21558 on T/A ETF AND INDEX

[northam43]

Pokersam - One of two things will have to happen.

1. If the SPX doesn't go to atleast 1385 during this current monthly cycle. Then a historical trend will be altered/changed.

2. If it does go to 1385 then the historical trend will continue.

Right now the monthly Phase II cycle is in the 10th month. The average Phase II cycle since Feb 1990 is 20.22 months. The record Phase II is 45 months, and the minimum Phase II has been 4 months.

So as you can see the current Phase II cycle could go on for quite sometime and the 1385 level could easily be met.

What could end the current Phase II?

(1) If a EMA 3/8 bearish cross is confirmed at end of the month. That would signal a new bear market.

(2) If the price remains below the upper trend line price during the entire month of June. A new monthly cycle Phase I would be confirmed July 1st.

Bottom line: If this is an average Phase II. 1385 will be hit by March 2011.