You asked for it
>>>I said a "A reasonable place to start for estimating the bare minimum value of the HDVY urine test..." That is where I started. I tossed that out because I was interested in knowing how many here, (who have owned the stock for seven years) had gone even that far. I like to make money, so I have learned a lot since then.<<<
Eh ... I’m still going to say it’s not reasonable. You, I and any other readers of this board know the CPT code and reimbursements of the PSA (a simple automated antigen test) and the high complexity 4-Gene urine test are akin to apples and oranges. I mean … a standard serum PSA test is only reimbursed $25 - $35 dollars per the CMS fee schedule. It would seem more reasonable to make a comparison with a test using the same methodology … No?
>>>Now when you vaguely referred to gene expression tests<<<
Vaguely? I’m not sure how “gene expressions tests” would be considered vague in the context of a message board regarding a company developing gene expression tests.
>>> were you talking about the PCA3 test?<<<
Of course not – it’s not ours, but DiaCure/Gen-Probe. I’m curious as to why you thought I was referring to that test.
I posted numerous times about this test as late as last summer when LabCorp first starting offering it. I also explained that it was not in direct competition with our urine test because it is NOT intended for screening or a single diagnostic tool – must be used in conjunction with a PSA. If the PSA levels were high and the PCA scores were high, then a biopsy is done. Yes, the tests clinical utility is in its specificity – the abilility to distinguish between PC and BPH. Again, not the sensitivity that is needed for a screening test.
>>>The urologists I have consulted tell me that the current indication is for evaluation following a negative biopsy. It seems that PCA3 as currently applied may not be as good as PSA for screening. Its sensitivity for detection of PC has been shown in studies to be in the 65% to 70% range, which is slightly lower than PSA's sensitivity. But for specificity, PCA3 is in the 75% to 80% range, which is much better than PSA. And that is all good news for us. Right Zeno?<<<
Sounds right to me you … Mr. you asked for it.
>>>Zeno, do you know what the Medicare criteria for PCA3 reimbursement is, and the amount? I do, but I don't want to spoil these guys by spoon feeding them everything.<<<
The criteria? The test must be medically necessary; must have been developed under a CLIA certified lab. Test performed with class I analyte-specific reagents. Must be supported by the scientific literature. Must be submitted with a diagnostic procedural code … there might be more.
Cost? The test has 11 CPT codes, so IF it is reimbursed (I believe Cigna, Aetna & BC/BS still considers it investigational/experimental) … I would say a poop-load. I do know the list price is $111.000 at one laboratory, but a list price varies from lab to lab and is closer to a patient price than Medicare expect. I could look up each code and their corresponding reimbursement and then add them up. I can prolly make a call and find out. But go ahead a tell us. This is what these boards are all about … sharing information. A community of investors all looking out for one another. You asked for it, we are asking for it. Please share.
>>>Also, you seemed to concur that the 'royalties' that HDVY is expected to receive are going to be '2.45%'. That is incorrect.<<<
Yes … and boy, is my face red.
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